مصر بسوی تکرار  جنگ داخلی دهه 1990 الجزایر پیش می رود.

دو روز قبل پوتین گفت که  مصر در آستانه جنگ داخلی قرار دارد.

حرف پوتین بسیار مهم است زیرا او رئیس جمهور یک کشور قدرتمند است و از سوی دیگر  معمولا روسای جمهور  تحلیلی را که در مورد مسائل خارجی  می زنند تحلیل عمیق کارشناسان خبره استخباراتی و مقامات وزارت خارجه کشورشان را بیان می کنند. پس در واقع نظر  و برآورد کلی وزارت خارجه روسیه و وزارت استخباراتی روسیه ک.گ ب  این است که اخوان المسلمین ساکت نخواهند نشست و در صورتیکه مسلح شوند جنگ داخلی راه خواهند انداخت که به مراتب خون بار تر از جنگ داخلی الجزایر 1990  و جنگ داخلی فعلی سوریه خواهد بود.  البته باید دانست که ارتش مصر نیز قدرتمند است و تنها ارتش عربی است که از مشروعیت مردمی نیز برخوردار است. آنچه مسلم است این است که مصر روزهای آرام و  شبهای زیبای  شرم الشیخ و دیسکوهای قاهره  و رقص های عربی و  دوران خوشی روزهای پر تلاطم توریستها از سراسر دنیا را دیگر بار  بزودی شاهد نخواهد بود. توریستهای غربی- خارجی ها – غیر مسلمانان لائیکها هدف ترور های کور اخوانی ها و سلفی ها خواهند بود. و ….. ارتش نیز مجبور است دست به کشتار بزند تا دهن  و دستهای خونبار سلفی ها را ببندد و … 

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روزنامه الوطن مصر آخرین گفتگوی مرسی رئیس جمهور معزول مصر و عبدالفتاح السیسی وزیر دفاع و فرمانده ارتش مصر را به شرح زیر منتشر کرد: 

مرسی: موضع ارتش از آنچه در حال وقوع است، چیست، اینچنین تماشاگر می ماند، مگر نه فرض بر این است که از مشروعیت حمایت کند؟ 

السیسی: چه مشروعیتی؟ تمام ارتش با اراده ملت است، و بنا به گزارش های موثق اکثریت ملت شما را نمی خواهد. 

مرسی: طرفداران من بسیارند و ساکت نخواهند ماند. 
السیسی: هر اتفاقی بیفتد ارتش به احدی اجازه تخریب کشور را نخواهد داد. 

مرسی:

بسیار خوب، اگر نخواهم بروم چی؟ فکر نکن که اخوان ساکت خواهند نشست. جهان را به آتش خواهند کشید!… و من تو را تعیین کردم و ممکن است، تو را هر لحظه کنار بگذارم. 

السیسی:

موضوع پایان یافته است و دیگر اوضاع بر وفق مراد شما نیست. سعی کن با کرامت گام برداری، و به خاطر جلوگیری از خونریزی از آنان که به عنوان طرفداران یاد کردی، و ملت را با آنها تهدید می کنی درخواست کن به خانه هایشان بازگردند. 

مرسی: در اینصورت این یک کودتای نظامی است، و آمریکا شما را راحت نخواهد گذاشت. 

السیسی: برای ما ملت مصر مهم است و نه آمریکا، و حال که چنین است،کاملا روشن می گویم: مدارکی در اختیار داریم که تو و بسیاری از رهبران دولت را به جرم آسیب به امنیت ملی مصر محکوم می کند و دادگاه رای خودرا در این مورد را پس از اجرای محاکمه صادر خواهد کرد. 

مرسی: خوب، ممکن است به من اجازه بدهید چند تماس تلفنی انجام دهم و بعد از آن تصمیم بگیرم که چکار باید بکنم. 

السیسی: نه اجازه ندارید، اما اجازه می دهیم که با خانواده ات تماس بگیری و سلامتت را به آنان اطلاع دهی. 

مرسی: مگر من زندانی هستم؟ 

السیسی: تو از هم اکنون تحت اقامت جبری بسر می بری. 

مرسی: تصور نکن که اگر حاکمیت را ترک کنم، اخوان آرام بمانند.. دنیا را به آتش خواهند کشید. 

السیسی: بگذار فقط یک خطا مرتکب بشوند، آن وقت عکس العمل ارتش را خواهی دید. هرکدام از آنان که می خواهد با احترام زندگی کند، اهلا و سهلا… در غیر اینصورت راحتشان نخواهیم گذاشت. ما قصد حذف هیچ کسی را نداریم، اخوان المسلمین جزئی از ملت مصر هستند و سعی نکن که آنان به هیزم جنگ کثیفتان تبدیل بشوند. اگر واقعا دوستشان داری، از ریاست استعفاء بده و بگذار آنان به خانه هایشان بروند. 

مرسی: من به طور کلی کنار نخواهم رفت و مردم در بیرون همه با من هستند و طرفداران من هم نخواهند رفت. 

السیسی: عموما، من تو را نصیحت کردم. 

مرسی: ولی نباید فراموش کنی که من تو را به عنوان وزیر انتخاب کردم و ممکن است عزلت بکنم. 

السیسی: من بنا به میل ارتش وزیر دفاع شدم و نه به میل شما و تو این را خوب می دانی… در ثانی تو نمی توانی مرا عزل کنی، تو دیگر مشروعیتی نداری. تو پایان یافته ای و مشروعیتی برایت باقی نمانده است. غیر از اینکه با خانواده ات تماس بگیری و آنان را از سلامتت مطلع سازی، اجازه دیگری به تو داده نمی شود. 

مرسی: خوب اگر با استعفاء موافقت کنم چی؟… به من وعده می دهید زندانی نشوم و به خارج سفر کنم؟ 

السیسی: نمی توانم به تو وعده ای بدهم، عدالت در مورد تو قضاوت خود را خواهد کرد. 

مرسی: خوب اگر چنین است، جنگ راه می اندازم و خواهیم دید که در آخر چه کسی پیروز می شود. 

السیسی: طبعاً ملت است که پیروز خواهد شد. 

و گفتگو با این جمله السیسی پایان گرفت: «تو هم اکنون زندانی هستی» 

بعد از گذشت چند ساعت از این گفتگو، السیسی از گارد ریاست جمهوری خواست مرسی را در یکی از مراکزی که شدیدا حراست می شود، تا رسیدن زمان محاکمه عادلانه بدون اذیت و آزارش نگهداری کنند 

روزنامه الوطن المصریه. 

 

Islam’s civil war moves to Egypt

 Spengler aka David Goldman often has a very unusual but penetrating insight into international affairs.

 Hugely wealthy and petrodollar rich Saudi Arabia’s clout can be felt everywhere. Its wealth and moral help via leadership of Muslims to US led West in Afghanistan helped unravel the Soviet Union .Pakistan and most Sunni Muslim states depend on its largesse and suffer from its evil designs.

Over more than two decades, Saudi Arabia has lavished around $100 billion or more on the worldwide promotion of the violent, intolerant and crudely puritanical Wahhabist sect of Islam that the ruling royal family espouses

No one dare criticize it.

 Vancouver Sun recently reported

 “The Saudis began exporting Wahhabism in the early 1970s when the country’s oil wealth began growing at an ever-increasing rate.

 The amount the Saudi royal family, both by government donations and the generosity of individual princes, now lavishes on Wahhabist schools, colleges, mosques, Islamic centres and the missionary work of fundamentalist imams around the world is extraordinary.

 In 2003, a United States Senate committee on terrorism heard testimony that in the previous 20 years Saudi Arabia had spent $87 billion on promoting Wahhabism worldwide.

 This included financing 210 Islamic centres, 1,500 mosques, 202 colleges and 2,000 madrassas (religious schools).

 Various estimates put the amount the Saudi government spends on these missionary institutions as up to $3 billion a year.

 This money smothers the voices of moderate Muslims and the poison flows into every Muslim community worldwide.

 Key figures in the September 2001 attacks on the United States were radicalized at mosques in Germany.

 Britain is now reckoned by some to be the worst breeding ground anywhere for violent Muslim fundamentalists

 Indian newspapers recently reported Saudi Arabia has a massive $35-billion program to build mosques and religious schools across South Asia, where there are major Muslim communities in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the divided territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

Indian police and Central Intelligence officers were quoted as saying their information came from American intelligence agencies

.There are unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia and members of the royal family have donated millions of dollars to fund mosques and Islamic centres in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Quebec.

The money, and the emphasis on Wahhabist teaching that comes with it, has caused sharp divisions among Canadian Muslims.”

 I have written earlier about the evil US-Saudi Dynasty axis , whose hand can be seen and felt  everywhere .

SPENGLER

Islam’s civil war moves to Egypt

By Spengler Asia Times, 8 July 2013

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-080713.html

The vicious crosswind ripping through Egyptian politics comes from the great Sunni-Shi’ite civil war now enveloping the Muslim world from the Hindu Kush to the Mediterranean.

It took just two days for the interim government installed last week by Egypt’s military to announce that Saudi Arabia and other the Persian Gulf States would provide emergency financing for the bankrupt Egyptian state. Egypt may not yet have a prime minister, but it does not really need a prime minister. It has a finance minister, though, and it badly needs a finance minister, especially one with

a Rolodex in Riyadh.

As the World Bulletin website reported July 6:

“The Finance Ministry has intensified its contacts [with Gulf states] to stand on the volume of financial aid announced,” caretaker Finance Minister Fayyad Abdel Moneim told the Anadolu Agency in a phone interview Saturday. Abdel Moneim spoke of contacts with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait for urgent aid … Defense Minister Abdel Fatah al-Sisi phoned Saudi Kind Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz and UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nuhayyan yesterday on the latest developments in Egypt. King Abdullah was the first Arab and foreign leader to congratulate interim president Adly Mansour after his swearing-in ceremony. [1]

Meanwhile, Egypt’s central bank governor, Hisham Ramez, was on a plane to Abu Dhabi July 7 “to drum up badly need financial support”, the Financial Times reported. [2] The Saudis and the UAE had pledged, but not provided, US$8 billion in loans to Egypt, because the Saudi monarchy hates and fears the Muslim Brotherhood as its would-be grave-digger. With the brothers out of power, things might be different. The Saudi Gazette wrote July 6:

Egypt may be able to count on more aid from two other rich Gulf States. Egypt “is in a much better position now to receive aid from Saudi Arabia and the UAE”, said Citigroup regional economist Farouk Soussa. “Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have promised significant financial aid to Egypt. It is more likely that Egypt will receive it now.” [3]

Media accounts ignored the big picture, and focused instead on the irrelevant figure of Mohamed al-Baradei, the Nobel Peace Prize winner whose appointment as prime minister in the interim government was first announced and then withdrawn on Saturday. It doesn’t matter who sits in the Presidential Palace if the country runs out of bread. Tiny Qatar had already expended a third of its foreign exchange reserves during the past year in loans to Egypt, which may explain why the eccentric emir was replaced in late June by his son. Only Saudi Arabia with its $630 billion of cash reserves has the wherewithal to bridge Egypt’s $20 billion a year cash gap. With the country’s energy supplies nearly exhausted and just two months’ supply of imported wheat on hand, the victor in Cairo will be the Saudi party.

I predicted this development in a July 4 post at PJ Media, noting,

The Saudis have another reason to get involved in Egypt, and that is the situation in Syria. Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war, now guided by Prince Bandar, the new chief of Saudi Intelligence, has a double problem. The KSA wants to prevent Iran from turning Syria into a satrapy and fire base, but fears that the Sunni jihadists to whom it is sending anti-aircraft missiles eventually might turn against the monarchy. The same sort of blowback afflicted the kingdom after the 1980s Afghan war, in the person of Osama bin Laden.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been fighting for influence among Syria’s Sunni rebels (as David Ottaway reported earlier this week at National Interest). Cutting off the Muslim Brotherhood at the knees in Egypt will help the KSA limit potential blowback in Syria.” [4]

There wasn’t before, there is not now, and there will not be in the future such a thing as democracy in Egypt. The now-humiliated Muslim Brotherhood is a Nazi-inspired totalitarian party carrying a crescent in place of a swastika. If Mohamed Morsi had remained in power, he would have turned Egypt into a North Korea on the Nile, a starvation state in which the ruling party rewards the quiescent with a few more calories.

The head of Egypt’s armed forces, Field Marshal Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, is not a democrat, but a dedicated Islamist whose wife is said to wear the full niqab body covering, according to Naval Postgraduate School professor Robert Springborg. “Islamic ideology penetrates Sisi’s thinking about political and security matters,” Springborg observes. [5]

The question is not whether Islamism, but whose. Some Saudi commentators claim al-Sisi as their Islamist, for example Asharq al-Awsat columnist Hussein Shobokshi, who wrote July 7, “God has endowed al-Sisi with the Egyptians’ love. In fact, al-Sisi brought a true legitimacy to Egypt, which will open the door to hope after a period of pointlessness, immaturity and distress. Al-Sisi will go down in history and has gained the love of people.” [6] The Saudi-funded Salafist (ultra-Islamist) Nour Party in Egypt backed the military coup, probably because it is Saudi-funded, while other Salafists took to the streets with the Muslim Brotherhood to oppose it. Again, none of this matters. The will of a people that cannot feed itself has little weight. Egypt is a banana republic without the bananas.

Whether Egypt slides into chaos or regains temporary stability under the military depends on what happens in the royal palace at Riyadh, not in Tahrir Square. It appears that the Saudis have embraced the military-backed government, whoever it turns out to include. It is conceivable that the Saudis vetoed the ascension of al-Baradei, hilariously described as a “liberal” in the major media. Al-Baradei is a slippery and unprincipled operator who did great damage to Western interests.

As head of the International Atomic Energy Agency until 2009, the Egyptian diplomat repeatedly intervened to distort his own inspectors’ reports about the progress of Iran’s nuclear program. In effect, he acted as an Iranian agent of influence.

The Saudis have more to fear from Iran than anyone else. Iran (as Michael Ledeen observes) is trying to subvert the Saudi regime through the Shi’ite minority in Eastern Province. If Riyadh did not blackball his nomination as prime minister, it should have.

There isn’t going to be a war with Israel, as some commentatorshave offered. Israel is at worst a bystander and at best a de facto ally of the Saudis. The Saudi Wahabists hate Israel, to be sure, and would be happy if the Jewish State and all its inhabitants vanished tomorrow. But Israel presents no threat at all to Riyadh, while Iran represents an existential threat.

The Saudis, we know from WikiLeaks, begged the United States to attack Iran, or to let Israel do so. The Egyptian military has no interest in losing another war with the Jewish state. It may not have enough diesel fuel to drive a division of tanks to the border.

The Saudi regime, to be sure, sponsors any number of extremist malefactors through its network of Wahabist mosques and madrassas. But the present Saudi intervention in Egypt – if I read the signals right – is far more consistent with American strategic interests than the sentimental meanderings of the Barack Obama administration, or the fetishism of parliamentary form that afflicts the Republican establishment.

The Saudi regime is an abomination by American standards, but the monarchy is a rational actor. As Michael Ledeen observed a year ago, “The big oil region in Saudi Arabia is in Shiite country, and the Saudi Shi’ites have little love for the royal family. If the rulers saw us moving against Tehran and Damascus, it would be easier for us to convince them to cut back their support for jihad outside the kingdom.” [7]

The United States has less influence in the region than at any time since World War II, due to gross incompetence of the Obama administration as well as the Republican establishment. The Obama administration as well as Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham courted the Muslim Brotherhood as a prospective vehicle for Muslim democracy, ignoring the catastrophic failure of the Egyptian economy as well as the totalitarian character of the Brotherhood.

Americans instinctively ask about any problem overseas, “Who are the good guys?” When told that there are no good guys, they go to see a different movie. There are no good guys in Egypt, except perhaps for the hapless democracy activists who draw on no social constituency and wield no power, and the endangered Coptic Christian minority. There are only forces that coincide with American interests for reasons of their own. It is a gauge of American foreign policy incompetence that the medieval Saudi monarchy is a better guardian of American interests in Egypt for the time being than the United States itself.

Notes:

1. Egypt following up aid pledges with the Persian Gulf countries, World Bulletin, July 6, 2013.

2. Egypt seeks the Persian Gulf cash as coalition cracks and opponents rally, Financial Times, July 7, 2013.

3. Egypt economic optimism high as transition government reigns, Saudi Gazette, July 5, 2013.

4. Dismiss the Egyptian People and Elect a New One, PJ Media, July 4, 2013.

5. Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, Egypt Army Chief, Turns On Morsi, The President Who Promoted Him, Huffington Post, July 3, 2013.

6. Opinion: El-Sisi, a true military man, Asharq al-Awsat, July 7, 2013.

7. Debating Syria: The Wider War and the Way Forward, National Review Online, March 15, 2013.

Spengler is channeled by David P Goldman. He is Senior Fellow at the London Center for Policy Research and Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum. His book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Too) was published by Regnery Press in September 2011. A volume of his essays on culture, religion and economics, It’s Not the End of the World – It’s Just the End of You, also appeared that fall, from Van Praag Press.